Wedariq is a weather-market signal service. We compare forecast probabilities with live market prices and surface trades where the market appears mispriced.
Questions people will probably ask before they trust a weather signal service.
Fair questions, honestly. This page is the first draft of the answers we think subscribers will want before they try Wedariq, pay for a tier, or judge the track record.
Getting oriented
What is Wedariq, exactly?
A public-facing forecast-to-market signal service built around pricing mistakes, not prediction theater.
No. The core idea is that the best trade is often the opposite side of an overpriced bracket, not the bracket that feels most exciting to call.
People who already understand prediction markets, care about expected value, and want cleaner decision support than a pile of raw weather charts.
Signal cards with direction, bracket, entry context, edge, EV framing, and plan-dependent delivery timing through Telegram.
Method and trust
How do we think, and why should anyone believe it?
Four cards, one idea: we price the weather, compare it with the market, skip the muddy spots, and keep the receipts.
Suppose the Miami 86°F YES contract is trading at 55c. That price says the market is leaning hard toward 86. Our model only gives that bracket a 28% chance, which means it misses in about 72% of runs. That is why the interesting side is NO near 45c: the market is paying up for a temperature the model does not trust.
We do not start from one heroic forecast. We start from the 51-member ECMWF ensemble, add live weather and regional signals, then calibrate the city against its own station behavior. By the end, we are not asking “what is the temperature?” We are asking how much probability lands inside each market bracket.
Sometimes the forecast fan is too wide, the book is too thin, or the edge is too small to survive real entry. Picture Chicago with a storm front and half the ensemble clustered cold while the other half drifts warm. Even if one bracket looks tempting, that kind of setup can be noise dressed as precision. One public filter already on the site is to skip spreads of 6C or wider.
The trust layer is not a slogan. It is the posted trade log: city, bracket, direction, entry context, result, P&L, and ROI. A nice win rate can flatter almost anything. Timestamped signals are harder to fake, easier to audit, and much closer to how a careful subscriber would judge whether the service is real.
Plans and delivery
What changes when someone joins or upgrades?
This section answers the subscription questions people usually ask right before conversion.
The free tier includes delayed signal delivery on a fixed set of markets so people can understand the product before paying.
It means signals are sent without the free-tier delay, closer to the moment when price context is still useful.
Starter is focused access with a limited number of chosen markets. Pro is broad access across all supported markets.
Because it is the fastest way to deliver signal cards, handle onboarding, and keep the product lightweight while the service is still developing.
That is the idea for paid tiers, especially Starter. We can refine this answer later when the exact market-selection workflow is finalized.
Probably yes, but the current product emphasis is signal quality and delivery first. A richer dashboard should earn its way in.
Sharp questions
The skeptical ones we should answer well.
These are the questions I expect from careful people, doubters, and anyone deciding whether the service is serious.
Good question. Our team live in a location where prediction markets are not available. But we know the maths behind the signals. The Subscription fee can support out team to continue developing and maintaining the service.
Signals depend on the latest forecast exports and market prices available at generation time. Freshness matters, which is why delay tiers and timestamp clarity matter too.
We should say yes carefully: the product is aware that quoted market prices and actually tradable prices are not always the same thing, especially in thinner books.
Not in the same way as the core live set. Tier 2 cities are the one we do not have complete information. They are better framed as observational or lower-confidence coverage until we are able to collect more data points from those cities.
Absolutely not. We are a team of mathematicians and data scientists. It is merely a signal information and market analysis. Users still make their own decisions, manage their own risk, and accept that losses if they choose to use our singal to participate in the predication markets.
Focus on whether the framing is clear, whether the signals arrive when they are still actionable, and whether the methodology feels coherent over time, not magical on one cherry-picked trade.
This FAQ is intentionally a working draft. We can tighten the voice, make it more aggressive or more conservative, and add sharper answers once you react to which questions feel real.